Shippers concerned about tightening US truck capacity may need to broaden their search for space to put freight.

Large US truckload carriers are clawing back their own capacity by cutting trucks from their fleets, but a rise in the number of motor carriers at the other end of the for-hire trucking scale is adding to overall available capacity.

The question for shippers is can they access that capacity and, for larger shippers, is that capacity actually usable? In addition, will the arrival of the electronic logging mandate in December choke that growth?

From last March through December, the number of active US for-hire carriers with up-to-date insurance and operating authority increased 6.4 percent, rising from 197,607 to 210,779 carriers, according to the latest data from QualifiedCarriers.com, a risk management company that helps shippers track carrier performance.

That increase in the overall number of trucking companies comes as large truckload carriers proactively pare fleets. The quarterly JOC Truckload Capacity Index, which tracks truck counts at large carriers, dropped from 90.4 in the third quarter of 2015 to 84.4 in the 2016 fourth quarter, showing capacity at large carriers 15 percent below its pre-recession peak.

Some of those culled tractors are likely being resold to smaller trucking companies, helping to power the increase in overall active motor carrier numbers reported by QualifiedCarriers. Those numbers may reflect a shift in truckload capacity from one end of the truck market to the other. That shift seemed to accelerate in mid-2016 and hasn’t shown signs of slowing.

“In every month since March 2016, we’ve seen a growth in active for-hire carriers,” said Jeff Tucker, co-founder of QualifiedCarriers and CEO of logistics company Tucker Company Worldwide. That number dropped in the first quarter of 2016 as the US economy slowed to a 0.8 percent expansion rate. The upturn since March 2016 tracked stronger economic growth.

In the third quarter, US gross domestic product rose 3.5 percent, followed by 1.9 percent growth in the fourth quarter, the first year-over-year quarterly GDP gains since early 2015. After falling in much of 2016, net orders for Class 8 trucks have been strong in recent months, rising 28 percent year-over-year in February to hit a 14-month high, ACT Research said.

QualifiedCarriers.com’s data may cast light on who is buying those trucks. The vast majority of the active fleets in its December database — 173,510 carriers or 82 percent of the total, operate one to six trucks. Only 372 carriers had 501 trucks or more. From year-to-year, the number of carriers continues to rise across all the categories tracked by the company.

The largest growth by far, however, has been from the bottom up. The number of active carriers operating one to six trucks is up 59.2 percent from 2012 through 2016, an increase of about 64,500 registered carriers with proof of insurance and active operating authority, according to QualifiedCarriers.com, which checks Department of Transportation data monthly.

Spot market truckload rates began to climb at about the same time as the QualifiedCarriers carrier numbers, rising from April 2016 through January, before slipping in February, according to DAT Solutions. Those rates began climbing again in March. The smaller trucking companies QualfiedCarriers sees entering the market typically are more reliant on the spot market.

The number of larger carriers is growing too, though more slowly. The number of carriers operating 501 trucks or more increased 14.1 percent in the same period, rising from 326 carriers in 2012 to 360 in 2015 and 372 in 2016. “We’ve been talking about consolidation for a long time, and in the last four years we’ve seen that kind of increase,” Tucker said.

QualifiedCarriers.com defines an “active” carrier as one with proof of insurance on file with the Department of Transportation and active operating authority. That yields a lower number of carriers than the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration list of “active” companies, Tucker said. The risk management firm only counts a carrier that a shipper or broker could legally use.

The rise in the number of smaller carriers is a challenge and opportunity for shippers. They represent a pool of capacity shippers could tap when capacity at their large core carriers gets tight and rates begin to rise, but it’s not easy for shippers to connect with them. Smaller carriers rely more on spot market load boards and brokers than larger companies.

In fact, while a company with 550 trucks and one with 6 trucks may be “truckload carriers,” they most likely operate quite differently and serve very different markets, with larger carriers operating under contract with shippers. That may mean some of the new capacity will be difficult for shippers to tap, in turn creating opportunities for freight brokers.

Tucker foresees a greater split in the truckload market, with larger carriers moving more and more of their business to dedicated or specialized services, which command premium pricing, while ceding more irregular route over-the-road freight hauling to smaller competitors. Even so, “We’re reaching a point in time where it’s good to be a big carrier,” Tucker said.

Large truckload carriers “have the worst driver turnover, but they have the assets,” he said, “and soon the data they’re going to have on their own fleets from electronic logging devices” will help them make better decisions about how and where to utilize equipment and drivers. “I see truckers moving to a far more dedicated slant because they’ll have much better data.”

It’s unclear whether the electronic logging mandate, which takes effect Dec. 18, will slow or reverse the increase in smaller carriers entering the market. “I think you’ll begin to see major changes” in truckload utilization and productivity, Tucker said, as carriers that haven’t already made the switch from paper to electronic logs begin to install ELDs.

“If you think today that half of the trucks still need to get compliant, it could be a really big deal,” Tucker said.